AEW Forbidden Door 2024 Preview, Predictions And Thoughts

It’s that time again as we have the show built around the idea of gust stars from a variety of other promotions. You get to wrestlers from around the world coming in to compete against the stars of AEW, which can make for some rather interesting situations. The buildup to the show is not often the strongest but you can see one heck of a night of action. That should be the case again so let’s get to it.

Zero Hour: Kris Statlander/Momo Watanabe vs. Willow Nightingale/Tam Nakano

This, along with the other two Zero Hour matches, were not important enough to be announced on Dynamite but rather a few hours later on Twitter. I’m not sure I get the thinking, but it isn’t exactly making me interested in what we’ll be seeing here. In this case, Statlander vs. Nightingale is the big draw, as they are already set to face off in the Women’s Owen Hart Tournament.

I’ll go with Statlander and Watanabe winning here to give a bit of doubt about Nightingale being able to make it to the finals of the tournament. That should make for a good match here, but Watanabe and Nakano are people who have not been around AEW very much over the years. That doesn’t exactly make for a big time match, but that is kind of the point in having the match on the Zero Hour show.

Zero Hour: Women’s Owen Hart Tournament First Round: Mariah May vs. Saraya

It’s a little weird to have May on the show when she already has a major role in another, bigger match on the card. For now though, we could be in for a nice match as either of them going forward could be an interesting way to go. Both of them could make for an a solid choice for the next round, though there is some logic that comes into play here which should determine the winner.

At the end of the day, May being involved in the Toni Storm vs. Mina Shirakawa match is a lot more important and there is pretty much no reason for her to go into that spot as a loser. May going over here makes a lot more sense and while there is something to the idea of Saraya going on towards a title shot in London, it isn’t the best option that they have available here.

Zero Hour: Los Ingobernables de Japon vs. Mistico/Lucha Bros

The big draw here is that Mistico and the Bros have never teamed together before. That isn’t the biggest draw in the world but it is certainly a cool enough moment and better than nothing. In other words, this feels like an excuse to get Mistico onto the show and that is not a bad idea. The match itself is only so important here, but that is often the case on Zero Hour.

There is pretty much no reason for Mistico and the Bros to lose here as Mistico can do his stuff and pop the crowd. There are some talented people in Los Ingobernables but it feels like they are here for the sake of making Mistico look that much bigger. It’s not a bad idea either, so hopefully they at least have an entertaining match on the way to the main show proper.

Zero Hour: House Of Black vs. Tomohiro Ishii/Kyle O’Reilly vs. Gabriel Kidd/Roderick Strong vs. Private Party

Yes there is a fourth match on this show, which was added during this week’s Collision. This feels like little more than a way to get a bunch more people onto the card, which is often not the most thrilling way to go. In this case we do have some big names who probably should have been on the show, but that doesn’t exactly make for the most exciting match possible.

I’ll take the House Of Black here, as they’re the biggest of the two regular teams (at least in AEW) and it makes the most sense to give them the win. This is going to be the insane match with everyone going nuts all over the place and trying to get in as much as they can, which isn’t going to be easy given how many people are involved. Odds are it should be fun though and that’s what you want out of a match like this one.

Zack Sabre Jr. vs. Orange Cassidy

We’ll start the main card here as Sabre wants revenge on Cassidy for beating him at last year’s show in a four way match. The other idea is that Cassidy isn’t good enough to beat Sabre on his own and is going to need some kind of special trick to pull it off. I’m not sure what that is going to be, but then again that’s kinds of the point of watching the match in the first place.

As much as I want to take Sabre here, it feels like a situation where Cassidy is coming in as the huge underdog but manages to pull it off somehow anyway, as tends to be his custom. It might not be the most thrilling way to go but that has never really stopped AEW with Cassidy before. It’s always fun to see whatever Sabre can do to torment someone else so we should be in for a good one here with Cassidy winning.

Maxwell Jacob Friedman vs. Hechicero

This is a bit early for a match involving someone as big as MJF but it isn’t like AEW has treated it like anything important. For the second year in a row, MJF’s Forbidden Door match feels like it was thrown on for the sake of giving him something to do and I do not get the thinking behind that move. It’s MJF’s first pay per view match since December and he’s more or less an after thought. That’s quite the odd way to go, but at least it’s an easy pick.

Save for some wacky interference, there is no reason for Hechicero to win here so we’ll take MJF in what should be an easy one. MJF will probably get in some trouble here but then wind up winning anyway, because there is pretty much no reason for Hechicero, who is probably not sticking around, to beat one of the biggest stars in the company. I’m still not sure I get the thinking here, but MJF wins.

Men’s Owen Hart Tournament First Round: Bryan Danielson vs. Shingo Takagi

The roller coaster that is the last full time year of Danielson’s career continues and that means we have another match against a hard hitter. That is kind of his trademark at this point and in this case he actually has a better chance to pull it off. It’s quite the way to go for a first round match in a #1 contenders tournament, but Danielson has a tendency to go a bit nuts anyway.

While Danielson might not have the best win/loss record, there is no reason to believe he goes down here. Takagi is another guy who isn’t likely to be around for the long term, which would likely include another match in the tournament. That leaves Danielson to win a heck of a fight, which isn’t something you get to say very often in AEW but it makes all the sense in the world here.

Learning Tree/Jeff Cobb vs. Samoa Joe/Hook/Katsuyori Shibata

Cobb is substituting for an injured Bryan Keith as Jericho’s latest weird character gets a pay per view match. The good thing about Jericho being in the match is that he can’t talk, which would be about as bad as it could get around here. Joe vs. Cobb is the hoss fight fans would want to see while the rest…well they’re all involved as well, no matter how odd it might be.

I’ll take the Learning Tree and Cobb to win here, as it seems like we’re going to be seeing Jericho do his thing for a long time to come, no matter how much of a mess it might be. That doesn’t go well if he loses his big match as part of the team, so odds are Cobb pins Shibata to get the win, giving Jericho something else to talk about. The match itself should be ok, but egads this has been a rough sit for a good while now.

Elite vs. Acclaimed/Hiroshi Tanahashi

Tanahashi is replacing Billy Gunn for the sake of it’s Forbidden Door and therefore Tanahashi has to be on the show. Much like the Learning Tree match, the good thing here is that if the Bucks are in the match, they can’t be talking (in theory at least) and that should make things a bit less annoying. This feels like a match that should be on Dynamite but here we are instead, though at least the addition of Tanahashi makes it feel more special.

It’s hard to imagine the Bucks losing a big match until Blood And Guts at the earliest so we’ll say the Elite wins here and keeps things going. Odds are we get a rematch of this later on with Gunn in there rather than Tanahashi, but for now at least we should be in for something good enough. The Elite go over though, as they’re a bigger deal than another makeshift team.

TNT Title: Konosuke Takeshita vs. Dante Martin vs. El Phantasmo vs. Mark Briscoe vs. Lio Rush vs. Jack Perry

Here we have a ladder match for the vacant title as Adam Copeland decided that jumping off a cage and landing on his feet was a good idea. The ladder match part makes it all the more eye roll inducing because it’s such a cliché at this point, but it also lets someone potentially steal the title without having to get a pinfall. That opens up some doors, but I think you know where this is going.

As much as I’d love to see someone like Martin, who could actually be made by something like this, get the title, this feels like it’s Perry all day. AEW is obsessed with getting this guy over one way or another and it feels like he’ll do it here as a way to become that much bigger of a deal. The match will be the usual car crash, meaning it’s only going to be so good, but it should be exciting.

Women’s Title: Toni Storm(c) vs. Mina Shirakawa

This is both a title match and part of a love triangle, as both of them are trying to woo Mariah May. That has made for quite the unique story but it is something that has been set up well enough that I’m curious to see where it goes. The match quality itself might be up in the air as Shirakawa doesn’t have a long track record in AEW, but that is far from the most interesting part here.

I’ll go with Storm to win of course, as the title isn’t likely changing hands here, though the question becomes what happens with May. It would not surprise me at all to see her side with Storm before eventually winning the Owen Hart Tournament and getting a shot against Storm at Wembley. For now though, all is right in the world as May signs with Storm and moves forward, though it could be quite the path there.

AEW TBS Title/NJPW Women’s Strong Title: Mercedes Mone(c) vs. Stephanie Vaquer(c)

We’re going title for title here and…I have almost no idea what to expect here as all I’ve seen from Vaquer is most of an eight minute match this week on Collision. Other than that it’s been all hype videos and promos from Mone, which isn’t the best way to go. What matters though is that we have what could be a huge match which could go either way, as the title vs. title stipulation shakes things up.

While there is a chance that Vaquer wins, I can’t imagine Mone loses anywhere near this close to her AEW debut. AEW knows that she is a star and isn’t about to have her lose a big match, or any match for that matter, here. They have also hyped up the idea that she needs to win the NJPW belt, even if that means we are going to be seeing another title running around AEW, because we haven’t had that in a bit.

IWGP World Title: Jon Moxley(c) vs. Tetsuya Naito

This is the other World Title match on the show, which is arguably a bigger match than the main event. Thankfully AEW has managed to avoid treating this as such a big deal, as that would be about as bad of a result as you could get for the AEW World Title. Moxley is already one of the biggest stars in AEW, but that brings up the question of whether or not he gets to retain the title here.

This one could go either way, but I’ll take Naito to win here, as I can’t imagine Moxley being the next big thing in AEW. Naito can get back the title that Moxley took fro him and we could be in for a rather good match on the way there. It also gives the other promotions their big win on the show, which very well could otherwise be dominated by AEW. This one could go either way of course, but I’ll take Naito to get the title back.

AEW World Title: Swerve Strickland(c) vs. Will Ospreay

Here we have the biggest match on the card and thankfully the best built up story. It’s an idea that has been done before, as you have Ospreay as the new ace of the company and Strickland being the “not so fast” champion. Ospreay has pretty much been able to do no wrong so far in AEW and Strickland can work well with anyone. That opens up the door for something great, but there is one thing in the way.

That thing is the Don Callis Family and unfortunately I’m expecting them to be what costs Ospreay the match here. Ospreay getting the World Title at some point seems to be an inevitability, but I would hope that Strickland gets at least one successful defense in the main event spot. Strickland has done incredibly well in this role and this could be another great one, though odds are the Family gets involved to cost Ospreay. It’s predictable, but that’s about all I can expect to happen.

Overall Thoughts

As you can probably tell from here, this is going to be a very long show. Fourteen matches and a show that could go around six hours makes for one heck of a marathon and I’m worried about things getting bogged down by sheer volume. There is a great show in there somewhere but AEW has a tendency to put in way too much on any pay per view. Hopefully they can find a way around it, but they’ve got a big challenge in front of them.